TSMC: The Easy Money Is Gone

What happened: TSMC reported record Q3 results and guided Q4 revenue to $52.3 to $54.3 billion, with AI-driven demand exceeding supply. The analyst behind the note keeps TSM on the sidelines. Key numbers: Q4 revenue guidance $52.3 to $54.3 billion. TSM at about $420 versus a $344 fair value, 22% above. Overseas fab dilution expected to widen to 3 to 4%. Price hikes from 2027. Why it matters: The analyst says margins have likely peaked short-term, with Q4 gross margin guidance below Q2, and sees the easy money as gone. Clarity on 2027 CapEx is awaited before any position. Coverage: 6 outlets in 24h

TSMC reported record Q3 results and guided Q4 revenue to $52.3 to $54.3 billion, with AI-driven demand exceeding supply. The analyst behind the note keeps TSM on the sidelines.

The analyst says margins have likely peaked short-term, with Q4 gross margin guidance below Q2, and sees the easy money as gone. Clarity on 2027 CapEx is awaited before any position.