Collegium at 2.9x 2026 owner earnings looks priced for the bad case after cutting 2026 product revenue guidance to $825M-$855M and adjusted EBITDA to $445M-$470M. Gary Aquilina calls it a high-risk Bu

What happened: On August 6, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) cut its 2026 guidance for product revenue and adjusted EBITDA, and the stock dropped sharply. Key numbers: Product revenue guidance cut to $825 million to $855 million from $865 million to $895 million. Adjusted EBITDA guidance cut to $445 million to $470 million from $475 million to $500 million. ADHD drugs Jornay PM and AZSTARYS are over 30% of 2026 sales. Why it matters: The analyst rates COLL a high-risk Buy, arguing the market is pricing in an overly pessimistic scenario despite legal, operational, and execution risks.

On August 6, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) cut its 2026 guidance for product revenue and adjusted EBITDA, and the stock dropped sharply.

The analyst rates COLL a high-risk Buy, arguing the market is pricing in an overly pessimistic scenario despite legal, operational, and execution risks.