Nikkei 225 scan: the 10 most negative 6m forecasts sit in the bottom 4% of the universe, returns -23.6% to -16.0%, median conf 84. One factor does nearly all the work: earnings yield vs bonds, negativ

Takeda Pharmaceutical ($4502.T), Fast Retailing ($9983.T), Takashimaya ($8233.T). Top 3, univ 0 to 1%. All three open with the same earnings-yield gap, -0.0886 for Takeda and Takashimaya. Takeda adds 12mo momentum bleed. Fast Retailing adds downside risk. Takashimaya adds 60d vol. Same disease, different symptoms. Healthcare and Consumer Cyclical landing in the same ditch. HOYA ($7741.T), Aeon ($8267.T), Teijin ($3401.T). Aeon is the interesting one: 12mo momentum pushes UP (+0.0202) while 6mo drags. Only name here fighting back. Teijin gets an illiquidity push up. HOYA has illiquidity working against it. Conf 78 to 86, so the model is not hedging. Sompo Holdings ($8630.T), Nissan Motor ($7201.T), ROHM ($6963.T). Nissan prints positive 12mo momentum and positive downside risk, a rare mix. Sompo is the quiet one, low vol, low downside drag. ROHM: illiquidity up, 12mo momentum down. Financials, autos, semis, all reading the same yield gap. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ($7011.T) closes at

Takeda Pharmaceutical ($4502.T), Fast Retailing ($9983.T), Takashimaya ($8233.T). Top 3, univ 0 to 1%. All three open with the same earnings-yield gap, -0.0886 for Takeda and Takashimaya. Takeda adds