CatalystGeopolitics
TRUMP TARIFFS CAN DO MORE DAMAGE TO ECONOMY THAN RECESSION
Trump tariffs' economic damage compared to recession drives geopolitical risk relevance.
Context
What happened: Desjardins chief economist Jimmy Jean said new Trump tariffs on about $27.6 billion in goods, plus Canadian counter tariffs, pushed businesses from a wait-and-see stance toward adaptation, which for some means permanently scaling back operations.
Key numbers: Tariffs cover about $27.6 billion in goods and 5 per cent of Canadian exports.
Why it matters: Jean said the structural effects of the trade war matter more than whether Canada enters a recession, since permanent factory closures and abandoned investment cause damage beyond a typical 18-month downturn.
What changed
Desjardins chief economist Jimmy Jean said new Trump tariffs on about $27.6 billion in goods, plus Canadian counter tariffs, pushed businesses from a wait-and-see stance toward adaptation, which for some means permanently scaling back operations.
Why it matters
Jean said the structural effects of the trade war matter more than whether Canada enters a recession, since permanent factory closures and abandoned investment cause damage beyond a typical 18-month downturn.