THE MAJOR ONES ALL END BADLY : PULITZER - WINNING CRASH HISTORIAN ON US STOCKS AT 250 % OF GDP

What happened: Liaquat Ahamed says $1 trillion in foreign inflows pushed US stocks to 250% of GDP, a ratio he says historically precedes collapse, and warns that booms die when capital demand lifts interest rates. Key numbers: US equities at 250% of GDP; real rates up 150 basis points in 12 months; 10-year Treasury at 5.09% versus NVIDIA's 2.32% earnings yield; NVDA market cap Why it matters: Ahamed compares the $1.3 trillion AI buildout to the 1870s railroad boom, where only one in five railroads paid a dividend before it collapsed, and he says timing such a turn is the giant challenge.

Liaquat Ahamed says $1 trillion in foreign inflows pushed US stocks to 250% of GDP, a ratio he says historically precedes collapse, and warns that booms die when capital demand lifts interest rates.

Ahamed compares the $1.3 trillion AI buildout to the 1870s railroad boom, where only one in five railroads paid a dividend before it collapsed, and he says timing such a turn is the giant challenge.