PREVIEW OF RBNZ OCTOBER 2026 MONETARY POLICY REVIEW : FOLLOWING ON ?

What happened: Westpac expects the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bps to 3% at the 28 October Review, possibly after a formal vote rather than by consensus. Key numbers: 25bps hike to 3% on 28 October; TWI about 3% lower than assumed; OCR seen at 3.5% in February, then 4% peak after June and September 2027 hikes; September projection had OCR rising to 3.25%. Why it matters: Westpac says forward guidance will likely keep open a further hike at the December statement without presenting it as certain, and the expected move brings the OCR to the top of the RBNZ's neutral range more quickly.

Westpac expects the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bps to 3% at the 28 October Review, possibly after a formal vote rather than by consensus.

Westpac says forward guidance will likely keep open a further hike at the December statement without presenting it as certain, and the expected move brings the OCR to the top of the RBNZ's neutral range more quickly.