KALSHI PRICES 92 % CHANCE FED HOLDS RATES AT OCTOBER MEETING

What happened: Kalshi prices a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve holds its rate target at 3.75%-4% at the Oct. 28 meeting. For Dec. 9, the most likely outcome is a range a quarter point higher. Key numbers: Oct. 28 hold: 92%; 4%-4.25%: 6.5%. Dec. 9 4%-4.25%: 67.9%; current range: 20.3%. Oct. 24 contract volume: 15.2 million. Why it matters: December prices put the largest share of probability on a range above the current target, unlike October. Kalshi notes these are market prices, not a forecast or a survey.

Kalshi pricing 92% odds Fed holds rates signals strong derivatives market expectation.

Kalshi pricing 92% odds Fed holds rates signals strong derivatives market expectation. — impact context not separately stored; see What changed.