ISRAEL - IRAN CEASEFIRE ODDS FALL TO 45 %

What happened: Prediction market odds that the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through 31 December fell to 45%, down 12.5 points in a week. Near-term contracts stayed high, at 93.2% for 18 October. Key numbers: 31 December 45.0%, down 3.5 points in 24 hours. 18 October 93.2%. 31 October 82.5%. 15 November 63.5%. About US$35.8 million traded overall. Why it matters: The doubt sits in the weeks after Israel's 27 October election and the 3 November US midterms. The content ties ceasefire odds to oil prices, fuel costs and energy and airline shares.

Iran ceasefire odds at 45% signal elevated geopolitical risk.

Iran ceasefire odds at 45% signal elevated geopolitical risk. — impact context not separately stored; see What changed.