MOVE at 100th %ile while VIX sits at 64th %ile. Rates stress is maxed; equity vol is not. Bad signal.

KXFED 42% that fed funds upper bound is above 4.50% after Jan 2027. Not a clean cut cycle. Watch the hawkish tail. ETH 98th %ile, SOL 97th %ile vs Dow futures 2nd %ile. Crypto is at the ceiling, Dow is at the floor. Something doesn’t reconcile. HYG and LQD both 0th %ile. Credit is maxed out at the wrong end. If MOVE is 100th and credit is 0th, the regime is fragile. KXDJIA 27% for Dow 55k in 2026, KXINX 1.5% for SPX 7775–7800 at 4pm. Low conviction on index upside into the close. Watch credit, not crypto. Watch: $CL_F $OVX $RSP $SKEW $XLE $ZB_F

KXFED 42% that fed funds upper bound is above 4.50% after Jan 2027. Not a clean cut cycle. Watch the hawkish tail.