MOVE 100th %ile, Skew only 65th. Rates vol is the stress signal. KXFED 49.5% on above 5.25% after Jan 2027 — coin flip, not conviction.

Copper 97th, Soybeans 97th, BTC 97th, ETH 97th. Inflation-sensitive assets are all pinned. Watch this cluster — if it rolls over with MOVE high, bad signal. XLK 100th %ile, Dow Futures 2th %ile. Tech melt-up, cyclicals left for dead. Not sure people appreciate how narrow this is. Ultra T-Bond Futures 0th %ile. Long end is screaming. KXINX 13.5% for S&P 7700–7724.9999 at 4pm — options market isn’t pricing a calm close. KXDJIA 33.5% for Dow ≥55,000 in 2026. With KXFED 49.5% above 5.25%, that’s too optimistic. Mixed signals, no unified theme — trade the extremes, not the index. Watch: $000300.SS $6J_F $HO_F $UB_F $XLK $ZT_F

Copper 97th, Soybeans 97th, BTC 97th, ETH 97th. Inflation-sensitive assets are all pinned. Watch this cluster — if it rolls over with MOVE high, bad signal.