VIX 78th %ile, skew 97th, MOVE 97th, crude vol 78th. Tail risk is bid. S&P dispersion 2nd %ile is the outlier — index calm while everything else pays up for protection.

2Y and 5Y T-note futures at 0th %ile. Kalshi KXFED 79.5% for upper bound >3.75% after Sep 16. Market is leaning hawkish into the meeting. Crude futures 100th %ile, $CORN Dec-2026 98th %ile. Kalshi KXWTI 59.5% above $102.99 today. Oil is the inflation problem, not a sideshow. $ETHER 92nd %ile. Portfolio mixed, no unified theme. Spec heat in ETH/corn but rates stress everywhere else. That's chop, not trend. Kalshi KXINX 0.5% for S&P below 7225 today. Index downside priced as near-zero while skew/MOVE sit 97th and dispersion 2nd. Crowded calm into hawkish Fed + $100 oil. Watch mean reversion. Watch: $DSPX $HO_F $OVX $XLK $ZF_F $ZT_F

2Y and 5Y T-note futures at 0th %ile. Kalshi KXFED 79.5% for upper bound >3.75% after Sep 16. Market is leaning hawkish into the meeting.