CatalystFutures Digest

Gold vol 86th %ile, CBOE skew 86th, MOVE 81st, VIX of VIX 73rd — caution is broad. Spot VIX only 66th, so this is under the surface.

BTC

$36.48

+0.94%

ETH

$2407.85

+0.48%

$36.51

+1.30%

What changed

Crude oil futures 100th %ile, Dec-2026 corn 100th %ile, XLE 100th %ile. Kalshi gives WTI front-month >$116.99 by Nov 3 an 8.5% chance. Extreme spot, weak conviction. 2-Year T-Note futures 0th %ile. Rates at an extreme against energy at an extreme. One side is wrong. Tail risk is priced rich while oil upside isn't confirmed. Watch XLE and crude against that 8.5% Kalshi line — if energy can't hold, it's crowded. Watch: $BTC $ETH $HG_F $XLB $XLE $XLY

Why it matters

Crude oil futures 100th %ile, Dec-2026 corn 100th %ile, XLE 100th %ile. Kalshi gives WTI front-month >$116.99 by Nov 3 an 8.5% chance. Extreme spot, weak conviction.

Sources

digest