Vol complex is asleep. VXN 2nd %ile, VVIX 5th, SPX dispersion 9th. But CBOE skew is 94th %ile. Someone’s paying for tails while everything else naps.

Not sure people appreciate how extreme ags are. Soybeans and corn both 100th %ile. 5-year note futures and USD/CNY both 0th %ile. That’s a frozen tape with food inflation risk. Crypto isn’t cooling. SOL 98th %ile, ETH 97th %ile. This is chase territory, not fade territory. Kalshi $KXNASDAQ100Y has Nasdaq 32000-32499 at only 4% for Dec 31. So even the calm regime isn’t pricing a clean grind. Complacency is broad but range conviction is thin. Watch the disconnect. VIX of VIX at 5th %ile says vol sellers are crowded. Skew at 94th says tail risk is already being bought. Bad signal. Watch: $000300.SS $ETH $GC_F $RB_F $SPY $XLC

Not sure people appreciate how extreme ags are. Soybeans and corn both 100th %ile. 5-year note futures and USD/CNY both 0th %ile. That’s a frozen tape with food inflation risk.