Nasdaq futures are up 3.6% and still sit in the 5th percentile of their 90-day range. The Kalshi contract has only 2.5% on the Nasdaq-100 closing below 19,000 at end-2026, so downside tails are cheap.

Nasdaq futures up 3.0% at 5th percentile with Kalshi pricing 3.5% odds below 18,999.99.