Sleeper GOP candidate puts blue-leaning state in play as fraud scandal shadows Dems

What happened: Fox News moved the Minnesota Senate race from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, as GOP nominee Michele Tafoya narrowed the gap with Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan less than three weeks before Election Day. Key numbers: A Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll shows Tafoya trailing Flanagan by four percentage points. Why it matters: The shift comes as Minnesota's welfare fraud scandal shadows Democrats, with Gov. Tim Walz abandoning his 2026 re-election bid. A Republican strategist said the fraud issue has made the race tight.

Fox News moved the Minnesota Senate race from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, as GOP nominee Michele Tafoya narrowed the gap with Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan less than three weeks before Election Day.

The shift comes as Minnesota's welfare fraud scandal shadows Democrats, with Gov. Tim Walz abandoning his 2026 re-election bid. A Republican strategist said the fraud issue has made the race tight.