SignalCommodities
Iran’s oil lifeline is drying up. The biggest pain may fall on ordinary citizens
Iran's oil lifeline drying up signals supply constraints with pain falling on ordinary citizens.
Context
What happened: A U.S. naval blockade threatens to wipe out Iran's seaborne crude oil revenues by mid-December, and Kpler reports Iran's trackable floating oil inventory outside the blockade zone has fallen to zero.
Key numbers: Oil is roughly 30% of Iran's government budget; oil and refined products are 50% to 60% of regime revenue including indirect
Why it matters: Analysts expect non-military spending to be slashed while military spending is maintained or increased, so the pressure may fall on ordinary Iranians through inflation and weaker purchasing power rather than on the military.
What changed
A U.S. naval blockade threatens to wipe out Iran's seaborne crude oil revenues by mid-December, and Kpler reports Iran's trackable floating oil inventory outside the blockade zone has fallen to zero.
Why it matters
Analysts expect non-military spending to be slashed while military spending is maintained or increased, so the pressure may fall on ordinary Iranians through inflation and weaker purchasing power rather than on the military.