Solid but narrow footing: UBS sees 3.5% global growth driven by AI capex

What happened: UBS said the global economy is expanding on a solid but narrow footing, with AI infrastructure spending offsetting tariff and energy price headwinds. Key numbers: UBS expects global growth to rise from 3.2% to 3.5% in 2027. AI-related trade is twice the size of energy goods and drives over half of global trade growth. U.S. Why it matters: UBS warned that data center opposition could delay spending and shift near-term strength into later years, and that Middle East conflict poses downside risk since almost all the 2027 pickup comes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Market: +1.2% today ($157.54), +11.3% YTD, 0.3x vol — as of 19:32 UTC

UBS said the global economy is expanding on a solid but narrow footing, with AI infrastructure spending offsetting tariff and energy price headwinds.

UBS warned that data center opposition could delay spending and shift near-term strength into later years, and that Middle East conflict poses downside risk since almost all the 2027 pickup comes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Market: +1.2% today ($157.54), +11.3% YTD, 0.3x vol — as of 19:32 UTC