Wheat and soybeans outperforming copper signals relative commodity strength.
Context
What happened: OptionMetrics writer Brett Friedman noted that wheat, soybeans and sugar posted strong risk-adjusted returns this year, while copper has disappointed despite heavy media attention tied to AI.
Key numbers: Sugar +44.7% year to date, Chicago SRW wheat +32.3%, soybeans +22.1%, copper +15.5%. Sharpe ratios: sugar 1.72, soybeans 1.3, wheat 1.2, copper 0.65.
Why it matters: Friedman said the financial press often confuses a compelling narrative with actual, risk-adjusted results, and the near lockstep move in wheat and soybeans leaves minimal diversification benefit between them.
Market: -2.2% today ($36.30), +33.1% YTD, 0.4x vol — as of 18:17 UTC
What changed
OptionMetrics writer Brett Friedman noted that wheat, soybeans and sugar posted strong risk-adjusted returns this year, while copper has disappointed despite heavy media attention tied to AI.
Why it matters
Friedman said the financial press often confuses a compelling narrative with actual, risk-adjusted results, and the near lockstep move in wheat and soybeans leaves minimal diversification benefit between them.
Market: -2.2% today ($36.30), +33.1% YTD, 0.4x vol — as of 18:17 UTC