Adani Green’s debt maths: Why leverage may fall below 4x as capex cycle matures

What happened: Adani Green Energy's CFO said leverage should ease as operating assets grow relative to under-construction assets, with net debt-to-run-rate EBITDA falling toward 4x and below over time. Key numbers: Net debt-to-run-rate EBITDA is around 5.6x now, seen broadly steady through FY28 and FY29, easing to 4.5 to 5x by FY30. Why it matters: The decline is expected to come from a larger EBITDA base and amortising project loans rather than a cut in capex. Jefferies estimates 30% EBITDA CAGR in FY26-30E and said Khavda execution should cushion the impact of the RBI rate hike.

Adani Green Energy's CFO said leverage should ease as operating assets grow relative to under-construction assets, with net debt-to-run-rate EBITDA falling toward 4x and below over time.

The decline is expected to come from a larger EBITDA base and amortising project loans rather than a cut in capex. Jefferies estimates 30% EBITDA CAGR in FY26-30E and said Khavda execution should cushion the impact of the RBI rate hike.