RBI looks set to hike for the first time since 2023, and Nomura models a shallow 50bp cycle with all of it landing in October. Timing is the trade: NBFC funding costs jump in Q3 FY27 while lending-rat

What happened: The RBI is expected to begin a rate-hike cycle for the first time in three years, with Nomura and Motilal Oswal expecting a 25bp hike in the October 2026 policy. Key numbers: Nomura sees a shallow 50bp cycle over October-December 2026 and a 1-8% hit to FY27 EPS for covered NBFCs. It raised FY27 system loan growth to about 17% from 15%. The RBI has done Rs 1 trillion of OMO sales. Why it matters: Analysts see banks with floating-rate loans and NBFCs with floating-rate assets and stable liabilities as more resilient, while others face margin pressure and estimate cuts.

The RBI is expected to begin a rate-hike cycle for the first time in three years, with Nomura and Motilal Oswal expecting a 25bp hike in the October 2026 policy.

Analysts see banks with floating-rate loans and NBFCs with floating-rate assets and stable liabilities as more resilient, while others face margin pressure and estimate cuts.