SATURDAY OCT 31 2026: Ukraine's local ceasefire evacuations, Lacker's Fed inflation warning, and Trump's court fights into the midterms are the three stories that matter for Monday.

Ukraine: civilians are evacuating a Russia-held city during a local ceasefire. Tactical pauses are not peace deals. Watch whether it holds through Monday, because it sets the defense and energy risk tone. Korea: South Korean, U.S., and Japanese FMs reaffirm a resolute commitment to complete North Korea denuclearization. Good diplomatic signal, but no new enforcement numbers, so markets may treat it as headline risk rather than a repricing event. Macro/rates: Lacker says he is surprised by the Fed's approach amid persistent inflation. The issue is credibility. If hawks keep talking like this, duration stays under pressure even before the next Fed meeting. Prediction markets: KXFED-27MAR-T3.75 is 84.5% for the upper bound above 3.75% after the Mar 17 2027 meeting. KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T4.2 is 14.5% for CPI above 4.2% for the year ending Nov 2026. That is a sticky inflation tape. Payrolls: KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T125000 is just 17.0% for above 125k October jobs. Bad signal for growth, good signal for

Ukraine: civilians are evacuating a Russia-held city during a local ceasefire. Tactical pauses are not peace deals. Watch whether it holds through Monday, because it sets the defense and energy risk t