NOV 10 2026: Nvidia internal probe, Microsoft overtaking Nvidia, and US-brokered Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi are the three stories that mattered.

US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks start in Abu Dhabi with low expectations. Watch for any ceasefire framework, because real de-escalation would hit defense and energy risk premia fast. Wachtell Lipton is leading Nvidia’s internal investigation into Jensen Huang and foreign intelligence. This is interesting: a governance overhang on the biggest AI trade, and Microsoft just topped Nvidia’s market cap for the first time since June 2025. Huang reportedly hired a PR firm with a history of handling high-profile sex scandals a year ago. Not sure people appreciate how much this looks like reputational crisis management, not routine IR. Earnings tape was mixed: MasterBrand call highlights, Venture Global (VG) beat Q3 estimates, eToro (ETOR) missed. Good signal on energy infrastructure, bad signal on retail trading demand. Prediction markets: 95% odds the Fed upper bound is above 3.75% after the March 2027 meeting, just 1.5% odds CPI tops 4.3% for November 2026, and 30% odds payrolls beat 1

US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks start in Abu Dhabi with low expectations. Watch for any ceasefire framework, because real de-escalation would hit defense and energy risk premia fast.