What changed
Iran violates ceasefire with drone strikes on Strait of Hormuz ships. NVDA chip prices could drop as QCOM and others intensify competition. AAPL, MSFT tumble on chip-crunch contagion fears.
Trump slams Iran’s “foolish” drone attack on a cargo ship, calling it a ceasefire violation. WTI crude slips to $69 as peace deal hangs by a thread.
NVDA’s Rubin upgrade cycle keeps it king, but the stock hasn’t been this cheap in 7 years. QCOM’s data-center gamble and AMD’s push signal the AI chip race is heating up fast.
Sticky inflation keeps a September Fed rate hike on the table despite July pause talk. 10-year breakeven inflation at 2.18%, real yields grinding up to 2.29%.
This week: A fragile Iran truce, an AI chip price war, and inflation refusing to blink. Markets are repricing risk—watch NVDA dip buyers and oil’s next move.
Quant Picks (model confidence >= 70):
$EIX — +5.4% vs Utilities (6m), confidence 88
$INTU — +4.2% vs Technology (6m), confidence 88
$HPQ — +4.1% vs Technology (6m)