Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Iran and US sign peace deal, Strait of Hormuz to reopen immediately. Dollar surges to highest since May 2025 on hawkish Fed bets. Nvidia gains 3.5% as Oracle flags massive GP

Geopolitics: Trump hails the Iran accord, Vance says no money changed hands, but critics call it total surrender. Strait reopening defuses a prime oil chokepoint, though Trump reserves the right to resume strikes. Macro: DXY breaks out as Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions index ticks up to -0.505, still deeply loose. Markets price a June rate hike with conviction — the Fed’s next move will cut both ways for leveraged assets. Tech & AI: NVDA rises 3.5% after Oracle’s GPU-hungry signal and Micron’s AI memory nod. Jefferies stays bullish; Nvidia’s chief architect teases sub-₹100 unlimited AI in India. Semis broadly in play — AMD, AVGO, MRVL, INTC, QCOM, MU. Investor takeaway: Peace in the Gulf removes an immediate supply shock, but the dollar’s rate-driven breakout tightens financial conditions. AI infrastructure demand remains the standout tailwind — watch semis closely as hawkish Fed meets easing geopolitics.

Geopolitics: Trump hails the Iran accord, Vance says no money changed hands, but critics call it total surrender. Strait reopening defuses a prime oil chokepoint, though Trump reserves the right to resume strikes.