Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says

IMF projects Middle East and Central Asia economic contraction in 2026 due to war.

Context

What happened: The IMF forecasts the Middle East and Central Asia economy will shrink in 2026 amid fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran, with Kuwait and Qatar facing double-digit contractions. Key numbers: Regional GDP forecast to contract 0.3 percent, down from 1.9 percent growth projected in April. Why it matters: The IMF cited prolonged disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for one-fifth of global oil supplies in peacetime. The region is the only one expected to see negative growth in 2026.

What changed

IMF projects Middle East and Central Asia economic contraction in 2026 due to war.

Why it matters

IMF projects Middle East and Central Asia economic contraction in 2026 due to war. — impact context not separately stored; see What changed.