SignalGeopolitics
Oil flows are up as Iran war turmoil eases. Why do prices keep rising?
Oil flows rising despite easing Iran war turmoil, yet prices keep climbing.
Context
What happened: Gulf crude exports have risen above pre-war levels, yet oil prices keep climbing as markets price in the risk of renewed hostilities in the US war on Iran.
Key numbers: Gulf exports averaged 24.6 million bpd in the week to October 18. Brent briefly topped $117 a barrel, up more than 60 percent from before the war. Freight costs reached $40 per barrel, about 10 times the usual rate.
Why it matters: Analysts cite anxiety over escalation, depleted inventories and higher transport costs. Brent futures for October 2027 stood above $90, signaling markets see normality as far off.
What changed
Gulf crude exports have risen above pre-war levels, yet oil prices keep climbing as markets price in the risk of renewed hostilities in the US war on Iran.
Why it matters
Analysts cite anxiety over escalation, depleted inventories and higher transport costs. Brent futures for October 2027 stood above $90, signaling markets see normality as far off.