What changed
$XOM — BUY 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $85.1B | EPS $1.16 vs $1.01 🟢
💡 Consensus expects FY2026 EPS of ~$11.30, implying a P/E of 13.2, which appears to price in a modest recovery. Our variant view is that Q2 EPS will print above $4.00 on higher oil prices and improved downstream, lifting FY estimates to $13+ and driving multiple expansion to 15x, targeting $190+.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.25:1
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 - One of the largest integrated energy companies with a diversified portfolio across upstream, downstream, and chemicals, strong balance sheet, and disciplined capital returns, though highly cyclical.
📊 Valuation: fair relative to forward P/E 13.2 and EV/EBITDA ~10.5x, but cheap if our above-consensus Q2 estimates materialize and FY EPS reaches $13+, implying a...
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings report
📊 Our read: BUY. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/XOM0612