What changed
$UNP — ADD 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $6.2B | EPS $2.93 vs $2.86 🟢 | Margin 39.5%
💡 Consensus prices in a mild recession with flat volumes and $3.00 Q2 EPS; we expect +2-3% volume growth and $3.05 EPS, triggering upward revisions and a re-rating from 20.7x to 21.5x forward P/E.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.3:1
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 - wide moat rail network, high barriers to entry, strong pricing power, and best-in-class operating ratio, though earnings are cyclical.
📊 Valuation: fair – P/E 20.7x on 2026E $12.50 (historical avg 18-20x), EV/EBITDA 14.6x (peers 13x), FCF yield 4.2% vs 10yr at 3.9%; not deep value, but justified...
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings release
💰 Entry: $258.61, stop $245, target $290
📊 Our read: ADD. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/UNP0624