What changed
$UNH — UnitedHealth Group provides health insurance and healthcare services.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $112B | EPS $7.23 vs $6.60 🟢 | Margin 8.1%
💡 Consensus expects FY2026 EPS of ~$18.37, but the company guided to >$18.25, implying a beat of only ~$0.12. The market is pricing in a deceleration from Q1's $7.23 (which included a large tax benefit) to a more normalized run rate. However, Q1 operating income was $8.99B vs $9.12B a year ago, and revenue grew only 2% YoY.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 12% to $450 (22x FY2027 EPS of ~$20.50) vs downside 10% to $360 (19.6x FY2026 EPS if MCR spikes). Ratio ~1.2:1, acceptable for a high-quality name.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (late July): Medical cost ratio (MCR) vs consensus ~83.5%. If MCR comes in below 83%, it signals utilization is under control. Failure signal: MCR above 84% or a cut to FY guidance.
Also in play: $HUM $CNC $MOH $ELV $CI $MCK