What changed
$T — ADD 📊
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $32B | EPS $0.57 vs $0.55 🟢 | Margin 23.8%
💡 Consensus expects T to remain a low-growth, high-debt telco with EPS around $2.32 for FY2026. The market is missing that free cash flow is improving (FCF of $2.7B in Q1 vs $4.8B in Q1 prior, but capex is elevated for fiber/5G buildout) and that the massive buyback ($2.5B in Q1 vs $0.2B prior) is rapidly reducing share count, boosting EPS.
🏢 Business Quality: 6/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 12% to $25.50 (10x FY26 EPS of $2.32 + buyback tailwind) vs downside 8% to $21.00 (9x FY26 EPS, debt concerns). Ratio 1.5:1.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (late July): EPS consensus $0.61, watch for FCF > $3B and buyback continuation. Failure signal: FCF < $2.5B or debt increase.
💰 Entry: Current price $22.78 is attractive.
Also in play: $V $MA $PYPL $SQ $FIS $IBM