What changed
$TXN — Designs and manufactures analog and embedded chips.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $5B | EPS $1.71 vs $1.37 🟢 | Margin 37.5%
💡 Consensus expects a cyclical recovery in analog semis, but TXN's Q1 beat (EPS $1.71 vs $1.37) and strong Q2 guide ($5.0-5.4B revenue, $1.77-2.05 EPS) suggest the recovery is already priced in at ~35x forward earnings. The market may be underestimating the pace of normalization, but the stock already reflects a V-shaped rebound.
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 | Valuation: rich
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 10% to $310 (if recovery accelerates), downside 20% to $225 (if recovery disappoints or multiples contract). Ratio 0.5:1, unfavorable.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 earnings (late July 2026): revenue and EPS within or above guide, plus commentary on orders and lead times. Failure signal: revenue below $5.0B or EPS below $1.77.
💰 Entry: Current price $282 is not attractive.
Also in play: $INTC $AMD $QCOM $AVGO $MRVL $TSM