What changed
$TXN — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $4.8B | EPS $1.71 vs $1.37 🟢 | Margin 37.5%
💡 Consensus sees the beat as a sign of sustained cyclical recovery justifying the premium. In contrast, we see the beat driven by easy comps and note that forward estimates (FY EPS $7.69) already price aggressive growth, while the Q2 guided range ($1.77-$2.05) suggests downside risk to consensus ($2.12).
📉 Reward/risk: 0.5:1
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 - TXN is a high-quality analog/embedded processor franchise with a wide moat, 58% gross margins, strong FCF generation, and disciplined capital allocation. However, it is cyclical and faces normal semiconductor demand fluctuations.
📊 Valuation: rich - Trailing P/E 48.1x vs peer band 9.4x-19.6x-45.2x and implied FCF growth of 12.7% from reverse DCF. FCF yield ~1.3%.
📊 Our read: AVOID. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/TXN0611