What changed
$TSM — BUY 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 latest | Rev $217.4B | EPS $3.49 vs $3.33 🟢
💡 Consensus sees AI growth but underestimates scale: TSM's Q4 EPS beat (3.49 vs 3.33) came with higher gross margins and guidance that significantly raised the base for 2025. The market is still pricing mid-teens growth when actual could exceed 25%, driven by N3/N2 node demand and Apple/NVIDIA/AMD ramps.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.2:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - technological monopoly with 60%+ market share in leading-edge nodes, sticky customer base, and high returns on capital; no credible near-term competitor.
📊 Valuation: Rich on trailing P/E (132x if $3.49 is quarterly, 38-46x on TTM view), but fair-to-cheap on forward P/E (22-27x 2025E versus 5-yr avg 23x) and...
🔮 Catalyst: 2025 Q1 earnings and guidance in April; potential Apple/Qualcomm order announcements
📊 Our read: BUY. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/TSM0621