What changed
$TSM — ADD 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 latest | Rev $217.4B | EPS $3.49 vs $3.33 🟢
💡 Consensus models a peak in AI chip orders and a cyclical slowdown in the second half, but supply chain checks and capex trends suggest order visibility extends well into next year. The market is pricing in near-term normalisation, whereas we see a durable upgrade cycle supported by N3/N2 ramp.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.0:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - Unmatched process technology leadership, deep IP moat, and a customer base that funds its next-gen nodes. Structural free cash flow generation and returns above cost of capital.
📊 Valuation: fair — forward P/E ~25x, in line with 5-year average but premium to broader semiconductor peers.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2025 earnings and full-year capex guidance update
💰 Entry: $462.12, stop $415, target $555
📊 Our read: ADD. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/TSM0619