What changed
$TSM — BUY 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 latest | Rev $217.4B | EPS $3.49 vs $3.33 🟢
💡 Consensus modeled a modest 4.7% EPS beat, but underestimates the acceleration in H2 2025 orders from major AI customers. Realized EPS 3.49 vs. 3.33 is a leading indicator of +10% upward revision to forward estimates.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.5:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - Dominant moat in leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing with a near-monopoly on AI-processor nodes (N3, N2).
📊 Valuation: fair — trading at 22x forward P/E (range 18–26x), 14x EV/EBITDA (range 12–16x), with a PEG of 0.8x based on 28% EPS growth, below the 1.2x peer...
🔮 Catalyst: Upside guidance at annual Technology Symposium (April–June) and major customer chip launches (Apple, Nvidia Blackwell Ultra)
💰 Entry: $462.12, stop $435, target $530
📊 Our read: BUY. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/TSM0618