What changed
$TRV — ADD 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $11.9B | EPS $7.71 vs $7.08 🟢
💡 Consensus full-year 2026 EPS is ~$28.50, but our variant view is normalized EPS of $30-31, implying 5-10% headroom, and multiple expansion from 10x to 11-12x as ROE consistency validates a higher premium.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.7:1
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 - Top-tier P&C insurer with best-in-class underwriting, conservative balance sheet, and consistent ~15% ROE, though exposed to catastrophe events.
📊 Valuation: fair to slightly cheap - P/E 10.1x vs. 5-yr range 10-14x, P/B 1.87x above historical but justified by higher ROE; DCF reverse implies 10% FCF yield...
🔮 Catalyst: Recent earnings beat and dividend hike, with upcoming analyst estimate revisions and potential buyback activity
💰 Entry: $300, stop $285, target $340
📊 Our read: ADD. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/TRV0621