What changed
$TRGP — Transports and stores natural gas liquids.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $4B | EPS $2.21 vs $2.48 🔴 | Margin 20.7%
💡 Consensus expects EPS of $2.89 for Q2 and $11.35 for FY, implying strong sequential and year-over-year growth. However, Q1 EPS of $2.21 missed estimates by 10.9%, and revenue fell 10.2% YoY. The market may be overly optimistic about a rapid recovery, especially given negative FCF (-$160M) and heavy capex ($4.5B guidance).
🏢 Business Quality: 7/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 10% to $298 (consensus PT) vs downside 15% to $230 (if growth disappoints). Ratio: 0.67x, unfavorable.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (late July/early Aug): watch for EPS beat vs $2.89 consensus and updated capex guidance. Failure signal: another miss or capex increase.
💰 Entry: Current price $271 is not attractive given the miss and heavy capex.
Also in play: $WMB $OKE $KMI $ET $ENB $SLB