What changed
$TMUS — T-Mobile provides wireless voice, messaging, and data services.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $23B | EPS $2.27 vs $1.97 🟢 | Margin 19.5%
💡 Consensus expects FY EPS of $10.50 and revenue of $94.6B, reflecting modest growth deceleration. However, Q1 EPS beat by 15% on a 10.6% revenue increase, with operating cash flow up 5.5% and FCF of $4.6B.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 12% to $200 (18x FY EPS of $11.10 after guidance raise) vs downside 8% to $164 (16x FY EPS of $10.25 if guidance disappoints). Ratio 1.5:1.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 earnings (late July): consensus EPS $2.88, revenue $23.3B. Key metric: postpaid net adds and ARPA growth. Failure signal: postpaid churn above 1.0% or guidance cut.
💰 Entry: Current price $178.10 is near the lower end of the fair value range. Ideal entry below $175, but current level is attractive for adding.
Also in play: $VZ $T $S $CHTR $CMCSA $ERIC