What changed
$TJX — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 FQ1 FY2027 (ends Apr) | reported May 20 | Rev $14.3B | EPS $1.19 vs $1.01 🟢
💡 Consensus expects continued double-digit EPS growth and premium multiple; our view is that spending may moderate and the multiple could contract from elevated levels.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10
📊 Valuation: Rich — trading at 30.4x forward P/E (midpoint guidance), above historical 20-25x range and peers ROST (~27x), BURL (~26x). EV/EBITDA ~18x vs.
🔮 Catalyst: Q3 FY27 earnings (estimated late August 2026)
⚖️ Avoid: TJX trades at 30x forward after Q2 beat; no near-term catalyst and rich valuation limit upside, while downside risk from multiple compression makes it a poor long entry.