What changed
$TDG — WATCHLIST 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $2.5B | EPS $9.85 vs $9.47 🟢 | Margin 46.3%
💡 Consensus expects steady double-digit earnings growth and sustained high margins; the recent EPS beat of $9.85 vs $9.47 may already be fully priced, leaving little room for positive surprise. My variant view is that without a new catalyst, the risk/reward is symmetric at best.
📉 Reward/risk: 0.7:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - Durable moat from proprietary aftermarket parts, high FCF generation, and disciplined capital allocation.
📊 Valuation: fair - Current trailing P/E 37.8x is at the 50th percentile of its own range and above sector median; EV/EBITDA ~20x, FCF yield ~3.5%.
🔮 Catalyst: Next quarterly earnings or an accretive acquisition announcement
💰 Entry: $1297, stop $1150, target $1400
📊 Our read: WATCHLIST. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/TDG0623