What changed
$TDG — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $2.5B | EPS $9.85 vs $9.47 🟢 | Margin 46.3%
💡 Consensus expects sustained double-digit organic growth and margin expansion. Our variant view is that growth will decelerate as year-over-year comparisons become more challenging, and the market's elevated expectations leave little room for positive surprise, making the risk/reward symmetric with downside risk from any disappointment.
📉 Reward/risk: 0.46:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - Proprietary, sole-source components with high aftermarket penetration, exceptional free cash flow generation, and a wide competitive moat.
📊 Valuation: fair; trailing P/E 37.8x in line with historical median, EV/EBITDA estimated ~19x, FCF yield ~3-4%.
📊 Our read: AVOID. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/TDG0620