What changed
$SPGI — BUY 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $4.2B | EPS $4.97 vs $4.82 🟢 | Margin 49.7%
💡 Consensus is anchored to official guidance ($19.40–$19.65) but underestimates the earnings power given pricing, mix shift toward high-margin subscriptions, and active buybacks. The beat-and-raise pattern suggests FY EPS of $20.00–$20.50, 3–5% above consensus, which can expand the multiple as growth durability is repriced.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.35:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - Oligopolistic moat in credit ratings, dominant indexing franchise, highly visible subscription revenue, 45%+ operating margins, and strong FCF generation with disciplined capital allocation.
📊 Valuation: cheap — 21x forward P/E (based on guidance midpoint) vs 5-year historical forward range of 23–28x and close peers (MCO at ~30x); EV/EBITDA ~18x vs...
📊 Our read: BUY. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/SPGI0620