What changed
$SHW — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $5.7B | EPS $2.35 vs $2.27 🟢
💡 Consensus expects steady mid-single-digit EPS growth supported by pricing and share gains. Our variant view: housing end-market momentum is fading, raw material tailwinds are peaking, and full-year EPS will land at the low end of guidance (~$9.50-$9.80), while the share price embeds >$10.50 in EPS power.
📉 Reward/risk: 1.1:1
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - Wide moat from brand, distribution, and scale; high returns on capital, consistent FCF generation, and visible secular demand in architectural and industrial coatings.
📊 Valuation: rich — Trailing P/E 29.4x vs. peer PPG at 21x; EV/EBITDA ~18.5x; FCF yield ~3%; relative to its own history, the multiple sits at the 50th percentile...
📊 Our read: AVOID. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/SHW0623