What changed
$RCL โ ADD ๐ | 6 MONTHS THESIS
๐ฏ Q1 2026 | Rev $4.5B | EPS $3.60 vs $3.20 ๐ข | Margin 26.1%
๐ก Market sees trailing P/E of 19.1x (112th %ile) as overvalued, but fails to adjust for the guidance raise. Variant view: FY EPS forecast near $18.50 puts forward P/E at 16.9x, cheaper than the 17.7x median, meaning earnings momentum will drive a catch-up multiple expansion.
๐ Reward/risk: 1.67:1
๐ข Business Quality: 7/10 - Leading global cruise operator with strong brand, scale, and demand recovery, but sector is cyclical, capitalโintensive, and exposed to macro and fuel-cost shocks.
๐ Valuation: rich on trailing (P/E 19.1x vs. 17.7x median), fair on forward (16.9x on FY guidance).
๐ฎ Catalyst: Analyst revisions following raised FY guidance and Q2 booking updates
๐ฐ Entry: $312.51, stop $290, target $350
๐ Our read: ADD. Full analysis โ
https://stockduty.xyz/s/RCL0621