What changed
$PM — Sells cigarettes and other tobacco products globally.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $10B | EPS $1.96 vs $1.83 🟢 | Margin 38.4%
💡 Consensus expects steady but unexciting growth from a mature tobacco company. The 7% EPS beat and 16% adjusted EPS growth signal stronger-than-expected momentum in smoke-free products (IQOS, ZYN) and pricing power, which the market is underappreciating.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 12% to $205 (based on 24x forward EPS of $8.40) vs downside 8% to $169 (20x forward EPS). Ratio 1.5:1.
🔮 Catalyst: Next quarterly earnings (late July 2026): Q2 EPS consensus $2.43. Watch for IQOS shipment growth and ZYN volume. Failure signal: Q2 EPS below $2.30 or negative smoke-free volume commentary.
💰 Entry: Current price $183.33 is attractive within a $175-$190 range.
Also in play: $ADBE $CRM $ORCL $SAP $NOW $AMZN