What changed
$ORLY — WATCHLIST 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $4.6B | EPS $0.72 vs $0.69 🟢 | Margin 18.4%
💡 Consensus FY EPS $3.26 is achievable, but market is pricing in perfection at 27.7x earnings, near historical highs; our variant view is that EPS could reach $3.35-$3.45, but that only supports $89-94 assuming no multiple compression, offering minimal upside offset by downside risk if comps slow or market rotates.
📉 Reward/risk: not applicable currently; potential entry at $85 offers ~1.4:1, below threshold; current price offers negative skew
🏢 Business Quality: 9/10 - Best-in-class operator with consistent comps, high margins, strong FCF, aggressive buybacks, and defensive end-market.
📊 Valuation: rich - 27.7x FY26 P/E, 17x EV/EBITDA, 4.2% FCF yield; relative to peers (AZO 18x P/E) and history (20-25x), valuation is at a premium.
📊 Our read: WATCHLIST. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/ORLY0611