What changed
$NUE — Produces steel and steel products from recycled scrap.
🎯 Q1 FY26 | Rev $9B | EPS $3.23 vs $2.82 🟢
💡 Consensus expects a cyclical peak and mean reversion in steel margins, but Nucor's Q1 beat (14.7% EPS surprise) and record shipments suggest structural demand from infrastructure and reshoring is sustaining volumes and pricing. The market is pricing in a sharp normalization that may not materialize in the next 3 months.
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 | Valuation: fair
📉 Reward/Risk: Upside 12% to $280 (consensus FY EPS ~$15 * 18.7x P/E) vs downside 8% to $230 (15.4x P/E). Ratio ~1.5:1.
🔮 Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (late July): consensus EPS $4.21, revenue $9.9B. Watch for steel mill segment earnings and guidance. Failure signal: segment earnings decline QoQ or guidance below consensus.
💰 Entry: Current price $250.49 is attractive within 5% of support. Ideal entry $240-250.
Also in play: $STLD $X $NEM $FCX $CLF $BHP