What changed
$NOC — HOLD 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🎯 Q1 2026 | Rev $9.9B | EPS $6.14 vs $6.06 🟢 | Margin 10.8%
💡 Consensus expects ~5% EPS growth aligned with defense budgets. The market already prices steady execution at median PE; our variant view that program accelerations could drive above-consensus earnings is not yet wide enough for repricing.
📉 Reward/risk: 0.9:1
🏢 Business Quality: 8/10 - Wide moat with long-cycle, sole-source programs, strong cash flow, and high barriers, though growth is tied to government budgets.
📊 Valuation: fair — PE 17.0x is at 50th percentile of historical range, in line with defense peers (LMT 16.5x, GD 17.2x).
🔮 Catalyst: Next quarterly earnings (expected mid-July 2026) or unexpected large international contract
💰 Entry: $521.5, stop $490, target $555
📊 Our read: HOLD. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/NOC0620