What changed
$NDSN — SHORT 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🧭 Conviction: HIGH
🎯 FQ2 FY2026 (ends Apr) | reported May 20 | Rev $741M | EPS $2.09 vs $2.52 🔴 | Margin 26.6%
💡 Consensus expected EPS of $2.52, but reported $2.09—a 17% miss. The market's growth expectations embedded in the 36x multiple are too optimistic, and the gap will narrow as estimates reset lower.
📉 Reward/risk: 2.1:1
🏢 Business Quality: 5 — Decent operating margins (26.6%) but highly leveraged (net debt) and cyclical; not a bad business, but unworthy of a 36x multiple./10
📊 Valuation: rich — Trailing P/E 36.1x vs sector 21x. Even on normalized earnings, fair value falls to $176-220 (P/E 21-26x).
🔮 Catalyst: Next quarterly earnings or guidance update
💰 Entry: $301.47, stop $361.76, target $176.0
⚖️ Short NDSN at $301 with target $176 and stop $361.76; the 17% EPS miss and extreme valuation gap against sector peers make this a high-probability mean-reversion short.