What changed
$MTN — AVOID 📊 | 6 MONTHS THESIS
🧭 Conviction: HIGH
Vail Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally.
🎯 FQ3 FY2026 (ends Apr) | reported Jun 08 | Rev $1.2B | EPS $8.81 vs $9.05 🔴 | Margin 41.0%
💡 Consensus may be anchored on the eye-catching annualized EPS of $35.24, implying extreme undervaluation, while the market fails to adjust for the sharply negative Q4 that typically wipes out most full-year profit. The actual full-year net income guidance of $128M–$162M reveals a much higher true multiple.
🏢 Business Quality: 7/10
📊 Valuation: rich
🔮 Catalyst: Start of the 2026/27 ski season and holiday visitation data
⚖️ Avoid MTN at $136.35; a deceptively low P/E of 3.9x on annualized peak EPS masks a 30x+ multiple on real full-year earnings, leaving no cushion for the recent miss and uncertain weather ahead.
📊 Our read: AVOID. Full analysis →
https://stockduty.xyz/s/MTN0701